Nigeria is facing renewed pressure in the global oil market as roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil for December and January loading remain unsold. Traders say weak demand and cheaper alternatives are leaving Nigerian cargoes stranded, adding strain to government revenues.
According to market sources cited by Reuters, Nigerian and Angolan sellers are struggling to place up to 26 cargoes scheduled for December and January loading. Of that figure, analysts estimate Nigerian crude accounts for about 20 million barrels, while Angola still has five to six cargoes searching for buyers.
The glut is being driven by intense competition from cheaper and more readily available supplies from other regions. Analysts say the unsold volumes point to a broader global crude surplus that has weighed heavily on prices in recent days.
The oversupply has already hit the futures market. Brent crude fell below $60 per barrel this week, its lowest level since May, as traders priced in excess supply heading into the first quarter of the year. Market watchers say the buildup of West African cargoes is both a symptom and a driver of the price slide.
Kpler analyst Victoria Grabenwoger said the backlog reflects a growing imbalance in the global market, with supply outpacing demand as the new year approaches. The unusually large volume of unsold oil has also slowed trading activity for February cargoes, even though Angola has already released its loading schedules.
Traders note that such a buildup is rare for this time of the trading cycle, which typically runs nearly two months ahead. Earlier this week, estimates suggested the combined unsold crude from Nigeria and Angola briefly climbed as high as 40 million barrels.
Analysts say shifting buying patterns are compounding the problem. China, the world’s largest crude importer, has turned to cheaper or closer alternatives, leaving Angolan January trades running about 20 per cent behind historical averages. Middle Eastern producers have also cut official selling prices, allowing their grades to displace West African crude in Asia due to lower freight costs and shorter shipping times.
India’s continued appetite for discounted Russian oil has further squeezed Nigeria, pushing medium and heavy West African grades out of key markets. Meanwhile, lighter Nigerian crudes are facing stiff competition from Argentina and Brazil, traders said.
The struggle to sell crude comes at a sensitive time for Nigeria’s economy. The Budget Office of the Federation reported that oil revenue fell by nearly 22 per cent to ₦3.9tn in the fourth quarter of 2024, missing budget targets by over ₦1tn. Earlier in 2024, Nigeria also failed to clear more than half of its scheduled crude cargoes for May, with more than 30 shipments reportedly left without buyers.
With global supply remaining high and demand growth uncertain, analysts warn Nigeria’s crude marketing challenges could persist into early 2026, deepening fiscal pressure on Africa’s largest oil producer.
