Iran Oil Price Warning — Tehran says global oil could skyrocket to $200 a barrel as the Middle East conflict intensifies and merchant ships come under fire in the Gulf. The warning came Wednesday as Iranian forces targeted vessels in regional waters and global energy markets braced for disruption.
The conflict, triggered by joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes nearly two weeks ago, has already killed around 2,000 people, most of them in Iran and Lebanon. Fighting has expanded across the region, rattling shipping lanes and oil markets.
Three merchant vessels were reportedly struck in Gulf waters on Wednesday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said ships had ignored orders in the area and were fired upon. One Thai-flagged bulk carrier caught fire, forcing the crew to evacuate. Three sailors remain missing, believed trapped in the engine room. A Japanese container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier were also damaged. That brings the total number of merchant ships hit since the war began to 14.
Energy markets reacted quickly. Oil prices jumped more than 4%, after briefly climbing to nearly $120 per barrel earlier in the week before easing to around $90. Stocks on Wall Street fell as fears grew that supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz—a channel carrying about 20% of the world’s oil—could be disrupted.
Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari warned the global market should prepare for a major shock. He said oil could reach $200 per barrel if regional security continues to deteriorate, blaming Washington for destabilizing the area.
The International Energy Agency responded by recommending the release of 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves, potentially the largest coordinated intervention in history. The United States quickly backed the plan to ease supply fears.
Meanwhile, tensions remain high on the water. Sources say Iran has deployed around a dozen naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, raising risks for commercial shipping. U.S. forces have warned civilians to avoid ports linked to Iran’s navy.
The war continues to spread beyond Iran and Israel. Missile and drone strikes have hit locations across the Middle East, including targets in Bahrain, Iraq, and Israel. Residents in Tehran report nightly airstrikes that have driven thousands from the capital.
Despite speculation about a quick end to the campaign, Israeli officials say military operations will continue. Defence Minister Israel Katz said the offensive would carry on “without any time limit” until objectives are achieved.
With shipping lanes threatened and global oil flows at risk, markets—and governments—are now watching the Gulf more closely than at any time since the 1970s oil crisis.
